[h=1]Premier League betting guide[/h][h=3]Best title, relegation, prop and Golden Boot value bets for 2014-15 campaign[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]James Eastham[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
It's barely a month since the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro, yet the new Premier League season is upon us, kicking off this weekend. The teams at the top of the table are likely to be the same as years past, but some of the key men on the field and managers barking orders from the touchline will be different.
Betting on the 2014-15 Prem season isn't all about backing the team that ultimately finishes top. It's also about finding value in the relegation and top goal-scorer markets, and making sense of the prop bets.
Here's a look at the best value bets for the 2014-15 Premier League season.
Note: Odds outside of title value bets are courtesy of Pinnacle.
Note: With an each-way selection in the outright winner market (i.e., to win the Premier League), bookmakers will pay out half the odds if your selection reaches the final.
As usual, the top of the Prem has something of a closed shop about it. Heading the market in the outright betting to win the title are Manchester City (5-2) and Chelsea (7-4). The former have added expensive talent in the form of Spain striker Diego Costa and ex-Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas, while City look as though they will be as strong as they were last season.
[h=4]Odds to win 2014-15 Premier League[/h]Courtesy of the Las Vegas Hotel.
Arsenal (11-2) are fourth favorites and will surely entertain, while last season's runner-up, Liverpool (10-1), have slipped to fifth in the future odds following the sale of Luis Suarez. It is impossible to make a case for Brendan Rodgers' side without their Uruguay international to lead the attack, and indeed, many observers would tell you it is impossible to make a case for anyone other than the top two, because Chelsea and Manchester City appear to be so much stronger than the rest.
But there is another team to consider. As Manchester United idled around outside the top six last season, much was made of the miracle Sir Alex Ferguson had worked to lead such a mediocre bunch of players to their league title less than 12 months earlier. Yet Louis van Gaal has had such a positive impact since walking in as new manager at Old Trafford last month that it's already clear the United squad was never as bad as it was made to look during David Moyes' darkest days.
Van Gaal has changed the formation -- United will use a 3-5-2 this season -- but more importantly, he has picked the players' morale up off the ground, reminded some of them that they were world-class performers not so long ago and sent out a clear message that United are back in business. The only two big-name arrivals so far are midfielder Ander Herrera (Athletic Bilbao) and left back Luke Shaw (Southampton), but van Gaal's ability to get a lot more out of the players that were already at the club means United should look like a brand-new team.
Chelsea and Manchester City are runaway favourites in the title race, so United -- free to concentrate on domestic matters as they didn't qualify for European competition -- are the value pick. They are third favorites in the market, but their odds are a lot bigger than Chelsea and City. Winning the league in his first season in charge may be beyond van Gaal, but by backing United each-way, you'll make a profit so long as they finish in the top two. As always, make sure you fish around for the best price.
Best bet: Manchester United each-way to win the Prem (+400)
For the second season running, West Brom appear to be in trouble. In 2013-14, they finished just three points above the bottom three, and even though they switched off in the last couple of weeks because they knew they were safe, they failed to really impress at any point during the campaign.
This summer, the Baggies have appointed Alan Irvine as their new manager, a risk as the former Preston North End and Sheffield Wednesday boss has never managed in the top flight. The Midlands outfit hope they have found the goal scorer they desperately need in signing Nigeria international Brown Ideye (10 million pounds from Dynamo Kiev), but there are still so many holes in their squad that another year of struggle seems destined.
Few are tipping Hull City for relegation, because Steve Bruce's side were safe long before the end of last season (like West Brom, their final league position -- 16th -- is a little misleading as they switched off toward the end of the Prem season, focusing on the FA Cup final instead). But it's rare for smaller clubs that do well in the league one season to do as well the next. Another big negative for Hull -- as far as their Prem prospects are concerned -- is the fact the club will be playing in the Europa League this season. Few of their players have experience of simultaneously dealing with the twin challenges of domestic and European competition, so it would be no surprise to see their league form falter.
Last season Tottenham Hotspur were a fine example of the detrimental impact European games can have on your league form, as their Prem results immediately after Thursday night continental fixtures were dismal. There's every reason to believe Hull could be about to go the same way.
West Brom and Hull are ranked third and seventh, respectively, as favorites to be relegated. If you want to back just one of these two teams to finish in the bottom three, make it Hull; but my pick would be to split your stake money across the two.
Best bets: West Brom (+260) and Hull City (+350) to be relegated (split your stakes)
The Prem top-scorer market -- or any top-scorer market, for that matter -- can be fraught with risk: The field is huge, there are a dozen or so serious contenders followed by another dozen or so outsiders and unknown factors such as injuries, suspensions and the transfer market (i.e., will your man be sold?) can throw your selection entirely off course. On the upside, you can have several picks instead of just one, as the long odds mean you'll make a profit as long as one of them pays off.
My first pick for 2014-15 is Daniel Sturridge. The logic is simple: The Liverpool forward was the Prem's second-highest scorer last season (21 goals) and there will be a lot more goals up for grabs in the Liverpool team this season following the sale of Suarez to Barcelona. You could argue that Sturridge will get fewer scoring chances because the Uruguay star is no longer playing alongside him -- and that's a fair point -- but given Suarez scored 31 Prem goals last season, the counter-argument that there will be more goals to go around and Sturridge should get his fair share of them appears stronger.
My next selections are a pair of Frenchmen who offer reasonable value in the each-way market. Last season, Loic Remy netted 14 goals in 26 games at Newcastle United, an impressive tally at a mid-table team. The negative for Remy is that he might get fewer scoring chances playing for a QPR team likely to be in the bottom-half of the standings in 2014-15. If he manages to secure a move to another Prem club, however, he could offer some value, so this could be one to monitor during the opening weeks of the campaign.
The second of the Frenchmen is Bafetimbi Gomis, who has joined Swansea City from Ligue 1 outfit Lyon on a free transfer. Gomis is a player who has always scored goals -- he has got into double figures in each of the past eight seasons in France -- and his pace and power could make him even more prolific playing in England. The barrier to Gomis having a superb season is teammate Wilfried Bony -- if the Ivory Coast international stays at Swansea then Gomis may have to play second fiddle -- but latest reports suggest Bony (who netted 16 times in 34 matches last term) could be on his way out. Should Bony leave, Gomis' odds will become very attractive as he'll become the figurehead of the Swansea attack.
My fourth and final pick is Eden Hazard. Competition for places at Chelsea and the fact goals may be spread among their formidable array of attacking talent are both concerns, but the Belgium international scored 14 times last season and is capable of improving on that tally. Hazard's progression so far shows he generally adds goals year-on-year; his goals haul chronologically read five, seven and 20 at Lille; then nine and 14 since moving to Chelsea. If he can step up from last season's total of 14, then he should be close to the top of the EPL scoring charts.
Best bets: Daniel Sturridge (7-1); then each-way, Loic Remy (40-1), Eden Hazard (50-1) and Bafetimbi Gomis (100-1)
Newcastle United's Total Season Points
Over the past 10 seasons, 45 points has earned an average finishing league position of 12.3; only once in those past 10 seasons has it been good enough to secure a top-half finish (10th in 2012-13). For Newcastle United, the Total Season Points line with certain bookmakers has been set at 44.5 points, effectively giving you the chance to bet on the Magpies finishing first to 11th (i.e. above the points line) or 12th to 20th (below the points line). The only sides that appear to be significantly stronger than Newcastle are Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton. That means Newcastle's chances of finishing above the points line are better than the odds suggest.
Best bet: Over Newcastle Total Season Points of 44.5 points (-133)
QPR's Total Season Points
There is less statistical evidence to back up the QPR selection than the Newcastle United selection. Instead, my feeling is that the newly-promoted London side are better-equipped for life in the top flight than the betting markets suggest. Harry Redknapp's side are among the three favorites for relegation and their Total Season Points line has been set at 36.5, suggesting they will finish in the bottom three. However, they should have good momentum after their dramatic playoff victory last spring, Redknapp is about as experienced a manager as you will find and there are several players on their squad with outstanding Prem know-how, notably summer signing Rio Ferdinand, who arrives after playing for more than a decade at the top level for Manchester United. I expect QPR to do slightly better than market predictions.
Best bet: QPR Over Total Season Points of 36.5pts (-109)
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]James Eastham[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
It's barely a month since the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro, yet the new Premier League season is upon us, kicking off this weekend. The teams at the top of the table are likely to be the same as years past, but some of the key men on the field and managers barking orders from the touchline will be different.
Betting on the 2014-15 Prem season isn't all about backing the team that ultimately finishes top. It's also about finding value in the relegation and top goal-scorer markets, and making sense of the prop bets.
Here's a look at the best value bets for the 2014-15 Premier League season.
Note: Odds outside of title value bets are courtesy of Pinnacle.
[h=3]Title value bets[/h]Note: With an each-way selection in the outright winner market (i.e., to win the Premier League), bookmakers will pay out half the odds if your selection reaches the final.
As usual, the top of the Prem has something of a closed shop about it. Heading the market in the outright betting to win the title are Manchester City (5-2) and Chelsea (7-4). The former have added expensive talent in the form of Spain striker Diego Costa and ex-Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas, while City look as though they will be as strong as they were last season.
[h=4]Odds to win 2014-15 Premier League[/h]Courtesy of the Las Vegas Hotel.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| MANCHESTER CITY | 5/2 |
| CHELSEA | 7/4 |
| MANCHESTER UNITED | 4/1 |
| LIVERPOOL | 10/1 |
| ARSENAL | 11/2 |
| TOTTENHAM | 60/1 |
| EVERTON | 125/1 |
| SOUTHAMPTON | 500/1 |
| NEWCASTLE | 1000/1 |
| STOKE CITY | 2500/1 |
| SWANSEA CITY | 2500/1 |
| SUNDERLAND | 2500/1 |
| ASTON VILLA | 2500/1 |
| WEST HAM | 3000/1 |
| HULL CITY | 5000/1 |
| LEICESTER CITY | 5000/1 |
| QUEENS PARK RANGERS | 5000/1 |
| WEST BROM | 5000/1 |
| CRYSTAL PALACE | 5000/1 |
| BURNLEY | 5000/1 |
Arsenal (11-2) are fourth favorites and will surely entertain, while last season's runner-up, Liverpool (10-1), have slipped to fifth in the future odds following the sale of Luis Suarez. It is impossible to make a case for Brendan Rodgers' side without their Uruguay international to lead the attack, and indeed, many observers would tell you it is impossible to make a case for anyone other than the top two, because Chelsea and Manchester City appear to be so much stronger than the rest.
But there is another team to consider. As Manchester United idled around outside the top six last season, much was made of the miracle Sir Alex Ferguson had worked to lead such a mediocre bunch of players to their league title less than 12 months earlier. Yet Louis van Gaal has had such a positive impact since walking in as new manager at Old Trafford last month that it's already clear the United squad was never as bad as it was made to look during David Moyes' darkest days.
Van Gaal has changed the formation -- United will use a 3-5-2 this season -- but more importantly, he has picked the players' morale up off the ground, reminded some of them that they were world-class performers not so long ago and sent out a clear message that United are back in business. The only two big-name arrivals so far are midfielder Ander Herrera (Athletic Bilbao) and left back Luke Shaw (Southampton), but van Gaal's ability to get a lot more out of the players that were already at the club means United should look like a brand-new team.
Chelsea and Manchester City are runaway favourites in the title race, so United -- free to concentrate on domestic matters as they didn't qualify for European competition -- are the value pick. They are third favorites in the market, but their odds are a lot bigger than Chelsea and City. Winning the league in his first season in charge may be beyond van Gaal, but by backing United each-way, you'll make a profit so long as they finish in the top two. As always, make sure you fish around for the best price.
Best bet: Manchester United each-way to win the Prem (+400)
[h=3]Relegation value bets[/h]For the second season running, West Brom appear to be in trouble. In 2013-14, they finished just three points above the bottom three, and even though they switched off in the last couple of weeks because they knew they were safe, they failed to really impress at any point during the campaign.
This summer, the Baggies have appointed Alan Irvine as their new manager, a risk as the former Preston North End and Sheffield Wednesday boss has never managed in the top flight. The Midlands outfit hope they have found the goal scorer they desperately need in signing Nigeria international Brown Ideye (10 million pounds from Dynamo Kiev), but there are still so many holes in their squad that another year of struggle seems destined.
Few are tipping Hull City for relegation, because Steve Bruce's side were safe long before the end of last season (like West Brom, their final league position -- 16th -- is a little misleading as they switched off toward the end of the Prem season, focusing on the FA Cup final instead). But it's rare for smaller clubs that do well in the league one season to do as well the next. Another big negative for Hull -- as far as their Prem prospects are concerned -- is the fact the club will be playing in the Europa League this season. Few of their players have experience of simultaneously dealing with the twin challenges of domestic and European competition, so it would be no surprise to see their league form falter.
Last season Tottenham Hotspur were a fine example of the detrimental impact European games can have on your league form, as their Prem results immediately after Thursday night continental fixtures were dismal. There's every reason to believe Hull could be about to go the same way.
West Brom and Hull are ranked third and seventh, respectively, as favorites to be relegated. If you want to back just one of these two teams to finish in the bottom three, make it Hull; but my pick would be to split your stake money across the two.
Best bets: West Brom (+260) and Hull City (+350) to be relegated (split your stakes)
[h=3]Golden Boot market[/h]The Prem top-scorer market -- or any top-scorer market, for that matter -- can be fraught with risk: The field is huge, there are a dozen or so serious contenders followed by another dozen or so outsiders and unknown factors such as injuries, suspensions and the transfer market (i.e., will your man be sold?) can throw your selection entirely off course. On the upside, you can have several picks instead of just one, as the long odds mean you'll make a profit as long as one of them pays off.
My first pick for 2014-15 is Daniel Sturridge. The logic is simple: The Liverpool forward was the Prem's second-highest scorer last season (21 goals) and there will be a lot more goals up for grabs in the Liverpool team this season following the sale of Suarez to Barcelona. You could argue that Sturridge will get fewer scoring chances because the Uruguay star is no longer playing alongside him -- and that's a fair point -- but given Suarez scored 31 Prem goals last season, the counter-argument that there will be more goals to go around and Sturridge should get his fair share of them appears stronger.
My next selections are a pair of Frenchmen who offer reasonable value in the each-way market. Last season, Loic Remy netted 14 goals in 26 games at Newcastle United, an impressive tally at a mid-table team. The negative for Remy is that he might get fewer scoring chances playing for a QPR team likely to be in the bottom-half of the standings in 2014-15. If he manages to secure a move to another Prem club, however, he could offer some value, so this could be one to monitor during the opening weeks of the campaign.
The second of the Frenchmen is Bafetimbi Gomis, who has joined Swansea City from Ligue 1 outfit Lyon on a free transfer. Gomis is a player who has always scored goals -- he has got into double figures in each of the past eight seasons in France -- and his pace and power could make him even more prolific playing in England. The barrier to Gomis having a superb season is teammate Wilfried Bony -- if the Ivory Coast international stays at Swansea then Gomis may have to play second fiddle -- but latest reports suggest Bony (who netted 16 times in 34 matches last term) could be on his way out. Should Bony leave, Gomis' odds will become very attractive as he'll become the figurehead of the Swansea attack.
My fourth and final pick is Eden Hazard. Competition for places at Chelsea and the fact goals may be spread among their formidable array of attacking talent are both concerns, but the Belgium international scored 14 times last season and is capable of improving on that tally. Hazard's progression so far shows he generally adds goals year-on-year; his goals haul chronologically read five, seven and 20 at Lille; then nine and 14 since moving to Chelsea. If he can step up from last season's total of 14, then he should be close to the top of the EPL scoring charts.
Best bets: Daniel Sturridge (7-1); then each-way, Loic Remy (40-1), Eden Hazard (50-1) and Bafetimbi Gomis (100-1)
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]Newcastle United's Total Season Points
Over the past 10 seasons, 45 points has earned an average finishing league position of 12.3; only once in those past 10 seasons has it been good enough to secure a top-half finish (10th in 2012-13). For Newcastle United, the Total Season Points line with certain bookmakers has been set at 44.5 points, effectively giving you the chance to bet on the Magpies finishing first to 11th (i.e. above the points line) or 12th to 20th (below the points line). The only sides that appear to be significantly stronger than Newcastle are Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton. That means Newcastle's chances of finishing above the points line are better than the odds suggest.
Best bet: Over Newcastle Total Season Points of 44.5 points (-133)
QPR's Total Season Points
There is less statistical evidence to back up the QPR selection than the Newcastle United selection. Instead, my feeling is that the newly-promoted London side are better-equipped for life in the top flight than the betting markets suggest. Harry Redknapp's side are among the three favorites for relegation and their Total Season Points line has been set at 36.5, suggesting they will finish in the bottom three. However, they should have good momentum after their dramatic playoff victory last spring, Redknapp is about as experienced a manager as you will find and there are several players on their squad with outstanding Prem know-how, notably summer signing Rio Ferdinand, who arrives after playing for more than a decade at the top level for Manchester United. I expect QPR to do slightly better than market predictions.
Best bet: QPR Over Total Season Points of 36.5pts (-109)
